Tropical Storm "Pepeng"---Again

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 043
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 11 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #055
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
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PARMA (PEPENG) back to Tropical Storm strength as it nears the Southern Coast of Hainan.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue intensifying until it makes landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon, with forecast wind strength of 85 kph. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows PARMA weakening into a Tropical Depression after crossing Hainan and shall be over the Gulf of Tonkin Tuesday Oct 13. It shall make its final landfall and dissipate over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.

+ Effects: PARMA's improving circulation continues to move closer to Hainan and Vietnam...with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) now aligned back to its main convection. Its outer rainbands spreading into Hainan Island...and now across Vietnam. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] has intensified rapidly as it tracks NE slowly while over the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 11 2009
Location of Center: 17.8º N Lat 112.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km (183 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 525 km (285 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Hainan-Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average

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