Tropical Storm LUPIT (Pre-RAMIL/22W) 12 NOON UPDATE--Friday October 16, 2009

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TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [PRE-RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
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Tropical Storm LUPIT (Pre-RAMIL) becoming a Typhoon as it continues to strengthen...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

*Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (Pre-RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reach Typhoon strength later today and slow its forward motion after entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow morning - executing a slow NW, stair-step track. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast has changed slightly, showing LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Wednesday (Oct 19-21). *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT shall make landfall over Cagayan on Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Provinces early Thursday morning (Oct 21) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). This scenario was taken from the latest forecast run of ECMF (European Guidance Model), which is the most reliable forecast tool this season. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to improve as it consolidates. Its southern outer feeder bands still spreading across Ulithi and Yap Islands - where squall conditions and thunderstorms can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date:12:00 PM PST Fri October 16 2009
Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 136.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km (65 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 485 km (262 nm) NNW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,265 km (683 nm) East of Catanduanes, PH
Distance 4: 1,395 km (753 nm) East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 1,625 km (878 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)

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