Tropial Storm "Parma" May Be Returning For A 3rd Time--More Storms On The Way?

Tropical Storm "Parma" Returning For A 3rd. Time?

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 07 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #039
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
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The weak Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) barely moving off the east coast of Cagayan & Isabela...may turn back again to the West and cross Northern Luzon for the 3rd time. Widespread rains across parts of Northern Luzon to continue.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected track westerly & cross Northern Luzon again, but it may be just a TD. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA regaining TS strength as it reaches the South China Sea on Saturday, Oct 10.

+ Effects: PARMA's loose and weak circulation trying to reform while off the east coast of Cagayan/Isabela...will continue to dump excessive amounts of rainfall across most of Northern Luzon, where possible flooding is likely. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) moving fast closer to Southern Japan...shall make landfall off SW Honshu tomorrow. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed October 07 2009
Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 75 km (40 nm) NE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 190 km (103 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 170 km (92 nm) North of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 370 km (200 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]

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